Hillary Trends
May 22nd, 2008 -- Posted in American Politics | No Comments »A few weeks ago I wrote about the percentage of internet traffic that the three candidates receive using Alexa.com. Today I am going to use Google Trends which demonstrates whether Senator Obama or Senator Clinton is searched for more using the world’s most popular search engine. So what is the relevance of this particular data? Well I was reading the various articles about the two democratic candidates today and one commenter couldn’t comprehend how Senator Obama was able to raise such large amounts of money. This Google data shows that as of May, Senator Obama receives the greater number of searches compared to Senator Clinton. For example if a potential voter was looking for information on Senator Obama and typed in “Barack Obama” or “Senator Obama”, the very first link that comes up, is for the Senator’s campaign page. Once you go to the Senator’s campaign homepage you are immediately first taken to the contribution page as you are with Senator Clinton.
The demographics of Senator Obama’s supporters come into play at that point in that his greatest appeal is to 18 - 29 year olds who are in college or just out of college. In the case of the people from 22 - 30, they would be earning roughly 25,000 - 55,000 depending on their level of education and state. For these people, donating $25 is a drop in the water in the scope of a cable bill for $60. This is where 1,000,000 people donating $25 makes a big difference rather than many rich people maxing out their personal contributions.
Senator Obama has the money but he has still had to fight Senator Clinton very hard in what the pundits determine the “swing states.” I have argued that this term is invalid in the current election in previous posts so I won’t argue it again but rather I want to touch on the point of the popular vote. Senator Clinton is arguing that she will have the larger popular vote after Puerto Rico and if the Michigan and Florida primaries are counted which is true. The difference in popular vote though will be minimal and the system was not setup like that, the democratic nomination is about pledged delegates and superdelegates. The general election is not even about the popular vote so why bring it up now? I believe that Senator Obama can win some of the States like Florida if the majority of the Clinton people backed him as indicated by the latest Quinnipiac poll:
In a Clinton-McCain matchup, she leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while men back McCain 45 - 42 percent. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 48 - 39 percent, while women split, with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain.
The poll doesn’t show Senator Obama winning but it does hint at the trend of him improving with key constituencies like woman. At the end of the day though, The Daily Kos has the full story as to why Florida and Michigan will not be seated in her favor and that is because it was loyalists to her campaign who stripped these states of their delegates.
