VP Profile: Hillary Clinton
June 22nd, 2008 -- Posted in American Politics | 5 Comments »Is Senator Clinton still on the long list as a potential Vice-Presidential candidate for Senator Obama? Many people are still speculating at the moment given their appearance together on Thursday at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington DC and their purported intent to campaign together the following week. In some earlier posts, I have stated that I would not be opposed to Senator Clinton as the VP as long as she brought some tangible benefit to Senator Obama in the general election. This may not be needed at the moment given that Senator Obama is leading in most polling at the national level while election predictors like fivethirtyeight.com show him winning decisively without the help of Senator Clinton:
I usually give some background about the candidate in VP Profiles but I doubt that any of my potential readers have a lack of knowledge about Senator Clinton. If you have happened to be on vacation in some remote island the last few months you can find two excellent VP profiles at The Left Anchor and The Huffington Post:
Sen. Clinton came into office in 2000, besting her opponent Rick Lazio by twelve points (55-43). She gained support between her first election and her re-election in 2006, which she won by more than thirty points. In her time in office, Clinton has built solid constituencies, gaining the approval of 68% of Hispanic voters according to an April SUSA poll. She also polls strongly among women of whom better than 60% support her. However, her standings among various political ideologies underscore Hillary’s negatives: she receives only 33% support among conservatives, while splitting independents (50 percent approval vs. 48 percent disapporval), and receiving 59% of moderates. She has the highest negatives of any candidate in the race with 40% of voters disapproving of her.
Although it is certainly unusual for a candidate to begin publicly running for vice president before withdrawing from the presidential contest, this may be the moment when Clinton has the most leverage, presenting herself as the one person who could significantly heal the divisions now running deep in the party.
White women, especially older white women, are one of Obama’s problematic constituencies and Clinton has done very well among them.
There is no question about it that Senator Clinton would bring some strong numbers to the tables but it begs two questions to be asked:
- Will some of Senator Clinton’s more fervent supporters accept her as a Vice-President?
- In choosing Senator Clinton as a VP, what would the Obama base and potential independents feel about that?
I think all of us remember that crazy old lady from the RBC meeting and as much as some people might want to discount her opinion as being on the fringe of the Clinton base, she might be more to the center than most people think. A fair amount of Hillary supporters have already moved into the Obama fold and I believe that this is proven by Senator Obama’s double digit leads in the latest Newsweek poll. The problem is that there is still a significant number of Clinton supporters floating around the proverbial political utopia waiting for some candidate to guide them. There are still some Clinton supporters who either will not vote, or support Senator McCain as stated in the Guardian:
Many experts believe the key demographic is likely to be suburban white women, who have been dubbed ’soccer moms’ or ’security moms’ by pollsters. They are often the key swing voting bloc that can mean the difference between winning and losing the presidency. They were a Clinton demographic stronghold, and among them McCain now leads Obama by 44 per cent to 38. At the same time, polls show one in five Clinton supporters now intends to vote for McCain. That indicates there is much work to do for Obama and his staffers.
Senator Obama and his team have a lot of work to do; involving wooing the Clinton supporters while ensuring that he solidifies his message across key states. The one advantage the Obama camp as over John McCain is organization, and the more efficient use of the internet to help spread the word of “Change.” With Senator Clinton as a VP, it will make Senator Obama’s pre-general election process a lot easier but at what cost?
Many people discount the importance of a VP but it can be argued given the influence of VP Dick Cheney over the last 8 years that the VP’s for both candidates are going to be hugely important come the general election. Senator Clinton would not be a bad VP, she would agree with President Obama on most issues and have some knowledge of the White House and its associated quirks. Before the nomination was sealed, Time ran an interesting poll that showed that Senator Obama’s supporters would be less likely to feel angry if Senator Clinton was the nominee yet will that data still hold true today? Even more important is whether the large independent bloc in this general election will be more likely to vote for Senator McCain if she is the Vice Presidential candidate? I decided to turn to reliable Excel for the final word:
This table is by no means complete so if you have any suggestions, please leave a comment and I will adjust it accordingly. At the moment it seems like she brings more benefits to the table because the possibility of a negative Obama supporter loss is minimal. I am still not supporting Senator Clinton as the potential VP but after today I will say that she is no longer on the “long list.”
