How Many Flip-Flops?
Well in a previous post I made the statement that Senator McCain has made more flip-flops than Senator Obama but that is a given, considering his greater length of time in the political arena. Despite this length of time, flip-flops are only excusable if they express a sincere change in position based on the facts, a fellow blogger at the Progressive Politics Examiner mentioned that it would be nice to have a leader who changed his opinion based on the facts. I am biased towards Senator Obama hence I give him the benefit of the doubt most of the time but for the sake of this post, we will not excuse any flip-flops.
During my research, I discovered that Senator McCain has made a total of 61 flip-flops based on the data compiled by alternet.org. Alternet.org is a decidedly liberal media platform hence we can assume that their count is pessimistic. Senator Obama on the other hand has made anywhere from 17 - 33 flip-flops depending on which blog you are reading. Let’s take the most pessimistic scenario in both cases which leave’s Senator McCain with the greatest number of flip-flops. My two favorites from both candidates are:
13. McCain was against divestment from South Africa before he was for it.
I was born in South Africa and I know quite well what the Government did to the people there, the fact that Senator McCain opposed divestment at any stage is unfathomable.
Senator Obama supported the FISA bill despite calls from the majority of liberals to Vote NO.
I was dissapointed like most liberals given our feelings about the FISA bill, however I do understand the Senator’s position given he is running for President and a “No” vote would have fueled the fires of “weak on national security” until the general election. These fires would have given the Republican party a focused line of attack which they are unable to attain thus far.
Given the number of flip-flops by both candidates, do they really matter at this point? I am not so sure but that depends on what the media has in plan for both these candidates before the election. I found this great McCain video on politifact.org, whoever created it made one hell of a video with some cool background music:
July 15 2008 11:47 pm | American Politics
July 16th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
flip flops doesn’t need to have facts to justify it. you can flip flop if you find it within you that the position is not consistant with your personal ideology also.
in fact flip flops would be consistant with your belief that the Constitution should be looked on as a living document.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:58 am
You make sense as always Griper, and you echo the sentiment made by my friend at Swimming Freestyle. My assumption is that the media plays on this term because it helps to drum up emotion against/for either candidate which in turn generates ratings.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:21 am
citing the number of flip flops of each is not a valid method for comparison, Crian. Statistics calls that a statistical exaggeration. it results in this because it uses unequal terms as comparatives. you need to use equal terms for comparing one thing to another.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Hey Griper, I don’t think I could comprehensively compare the flip-flops of each candidate given the variables within these so-called “flip-flops” but to look at both of these candidates in the broadest perspective, I believe the comparison is noteworthy.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
I wish we could find another term beside flip-flop. Being in the United States, especially now during this critical election cycle, I have heard that term so much. I believe that a ‘flip-flop’ , is used to define a candidate or politician’s desire to garner votes through changing positions to suit the political climate. These days everything has become that word that I don’t like. lolzzzzzzzzzzzz
Keeping my sense of humor in the United States.
PD
July 18th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Hey PD, can you imagine another terms besides flip-flop? I can’t imagine them using anything else otherwise we might end up with a more serious term like “transistional position” but then again it wouldn’t sound as funny when you said it.
July 19th, 2008 at 7:13 am
ahhhhh, Crian, you yourself has declared a variable that can be used fairly in regards to the flip flops, length in office.
McCain has held the office of Senator for 21 years while obama has held office of Senator for 3 years. thus,
McCain
61 flip flops/21 years=2.9 flip flops per year in office.
Obama
17/3=5.7 flip flops per year or
33/3= 11 flip flops per year.
from this we could predict that Obama would make anywheres between 119 and 231 flip flops in the same length of time in office as McCain.
and as long as you recognize that length of time in office is a variable then it would be statistically impossible to get Obama’s flip flops lower than McCain’s regardless of how many other variables you add to it.
the way you presented it would be considered as a statistical exaggeration and considered as a invalid conclusion, statistically.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Damn griper, those are some scary calculations to look at from the perspective of an Obama supporter but they wouldn’t change my mind as an Obama supporter just as I guess they have not changed the minds of many McCain supporters. I see what you mean about Flip-Flop math, it is possible that Senator Obama could make anywhere from 119 to 231 flip-flops but that is if we assume that the number of flip-flops he makes per year hold true. I guess that is why they say we should take statistics with a pinch of salt.
July 20th, 2008 at 12:07 am
i didn’t expect you to change, Crian. but, what it should do is give you something to think about in regards to the promises he makes. and it gives you an idea about which candidate is more likely to keep his promises.
Statistics never come to a conclusion of fact. it only comes to a conclusion of probability.
as for taking it with a pinch of salt, remember this. every gambling casino and every insurance company in the world relies on odds of probability to make profit. and their profits are mighty sweet not salty.
July 20th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
The casino analogy is quite fitting, and thank you for your words as always. I do realize Senator Obama has made a lot of promises and even if he does break a majority of them, I believe under all the promises he has made, he is a blue-blooded liberal who will further certain liberal values that I support.
July 20th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
with that, a good place to end this thread.