Who Dares Wins
Back to the American election for me today, with a short post since I am not quite sure where my evening disappeared to as it’s already 12am. I want to grab a quick snack before I go to bed so I will try not to ramble on as I usually do. I am a recent convert to MSNBC’s countdown because the way Keith Olbermann talks is quite funny for lack of a better word not to mention it kind of feels good to have someone batting for liberals every night beyond Jon Stewart. The big news this past few days has been that the Obama campaign is not running short on donations as they reported a haul of $52 million in June which puts them on par with the McCain campaign on a monetary level. The Obama campaign has sparked some criticism with their use of this money through spending money in the typical Republican states of Alaska, Missouri, Virginia etc… Some democratic strategists would have the Obama campaign shore up Democratic support in key states however this new strategy might bear fruit if the following election prediction holds true.
I have often reiterated on this blog that Senator Obama has the potential to truly revolutionize the way the Democratic Party wins elections. This revolution would happen by Senator Obama capturing some typically Republican states as well as the ones Democrats usually win in the general election. At the moment according to political prediction site fivethirtyeight.com, Senator Obama is likely to win the general election with 292.4 electoral votes:
This is good news for Democrats given that there have been some doubts about the Obama campaign’s strategy within the party and its base. Senator Obama needs to keep playing the political game boldly because it is only through this boldness that the McCain camp will continue to squander their resources in a broad fashion as opposed to more focused attacks which would lead to a harder fought battle. I will call it a night and leave it to Keith Olbermann and Countdown to close out the night with more on the Obama campaign’s strategy:
July 18 2008 10:51 pm | American Politics
July 18th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Personally, I think that Obama’s strategy of spending a bunch of cash in the so-called “swing” states is excellent. I’ve been more and more convinced over just the last year that Obama’s strategists are brilliant compared to McCain’s.
This is nothing short of a war. Knowing full well that Obama’s camp will be much better funded than the enemy’s camp, it is excellent strategy to attack those fortifications that have long been held by the enemy but now show signs of weakness. That will draw crucial amounts of cash into defending what they figured was always theirs - thus draining their resources further. Which may very well open the door to attacking them in their stronger fortifications.
It’s like attacking weak pawns in a chess game, waiting for the inevitable reinforcements, then striking for the King.
I like what Obama says. I’ll vote for him. But I think his strategists are nothing short of brilliant.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Hey Cyan, couldn’t agree with you more dude. I have a read a little bit about the Obama strategists and they really seem to know the game, I hope this holds true until the general election so I can look forward to seeing a Democrat in the White House.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
all the pros and no cons. There has to be weakness with that strategy or some opportunity cost the Obama campaign is missing out on.
July 19th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Hey tate, I am sure there is a weakness however it was not the point of this post. I was merely trying to indicate that current political simulations lead to an Obama win with his current strategy.
July 20th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Sorry for not being more specific, in my commentary earlier I read your piece. I was mainly psyco-analysing Olberman’s guest who implied that the Obama Campaign just caught the gravy train. These cable news pundits have got it wrong so many times. I was just struck by the blatant lack of objectivity Chris Konifis has an analyst of all things…Call me crazy
July 20th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Hey Tate, that makes more sense, I don’t think Keith Olbermann is looking for the most objective guest but the guest that would be more inclined to deliver a liberal view of the situation. After all it is very rare that Fox News has liberal guests that actually get the last word in therefore I am quite happy with that Countdown episode.
July 21st, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Obama’s primary strategy was very well executed. By focusing on caucus states, and understanding the unusual rules that apply to caucuses, he managed to rack up a huge advantage in delegates, despite losing most of the primaries. By the middle of February, it was pretty clear that only a race-ending gaffe on Obama’s part would allow Hillary to win.
Making it happen in the general election is something else. It’s likely to come down to a few states with close races. Last time around Minnesota was such a battleground, and we saw multiple visits from both candidates. Texas and California,
both states with much more electoral votes, saw nearly none; Texas was clearly going for Bush, and California for Kerry.
I’m glad I don’t watch TV. The last month before the election is nonstop political ads.
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Watching TV really sucks up a lot of time, the one thing good about living in Ireland is when I watch some of the political shows on the net, I don’t have to watch many ads.
You make a good point Gordon that Senator Obama played the pre-nomination game with the ability of someone born to run however the general election game is a totally different beast. We will have to wait and see what is the Senator’s next step once he comes back from overseas.