Numbers Don’t Lie, But Sometimes They Hide
August 4th, 2008 -- Posted in American Politics | 11 Comments »Cross-posted from The Left Anchor
Consider this your Monday morning pick me up:
Despite the closeness of the race as it stands now, there are facts of great significance buried in the demographic breakdowns behind the most recent polls numbers. So what’s the good news, then? Quite simply the fact that Obama is massively outrunning Kerry’s 2004 margins among women, Hispanics, and low wage workers*.
So, let’s take a moment to dig into the numbers behind the numbers. Obama leads McCain by a whopping 19 points among women (55-36). This is a demographic that in 2004 favored Kerry by a meager 3 points (51-48), meaning we’re looking at a nearly unbelievable 16 point swing in our direction since the last election. That’s no small potatoes.
The turnaround among Hispanics is even more impressive. Kerry took that demographic by 9 points in ‘04, while Obama is trouncing McCain there by a nearly three-to-one margin (66-23). For those keeping score at home that’s a net gain of 34 points, which just goes to show how damaging the GOP’s scare mongering on the immigration issue has been, and just how ridiculous were the notions that suggested Barack Obama was going to have a problem appealing to Hispanics. Moreover, if the Democrats can pass real immigration reform including a path to citizenship under an Obama administration, then the Republicans can kiss the fastest growing minority in the country goodbye for two or three decades. Between blacks and Hispanics, we’re looking at nearly 20 percent of the vote, much of which is already beyond the GOP’s reach, while the rest seems to be rapidly escaping their grip.
Even white voters look like they’ll under-perform for McCain this November. In 2004, George W. Bush secured this bloc with an impressive 17 point lead, but McCain currently leads here by only 7 points. Once again, unless McCain can manage to nab every undecided among white voters, he’s likely to lose ground here as well.
As for the Democrats’ most loyal supporters, African Americans, Obama has managed to to increase his margins here as well. Kerry drew the support of 88% of black voters in 2004, while Bush managed to carry on the GOP tradition of wildly under-performing among black by bringing in a paltry 11% of the black vote. And yet, McCain fares far worse among these votes, securing only 1% among that same demographic to Obama’s 94% of the vote. Given the margin of error, that effectively means McCain might have zero support in the black community. In addition to this, it’s only natural to assume that the black community — already among the most active participants in politics — will increase their over-all share of the vote in order to give their support to the first credible black candidate for president.
Finally, in 2004, Kerry took the working class vote — those making less than $30,000 a year — by 16 points (58-42), while a recent Washington Post poll has Obama leading McCain among this demographic by a 2-1 margin (58-28). Much of this change can be attributed to the aforementioned gains among Hispanics, and African-Americans, but Obama even manages to secure a 10 point advantage among low wage whites (47-37) — a demographic in which we were assured Obama would face much difficulty. Unless McCain manages to grab the entire bloc of undecideds among low wage workers, it’s probably a reasonable assumption that Obama will also greatly outperform Kerry’s numbers in 2004 here as well.
So, while the current polls may provide some hope to McCain supporters, underneath there looks to be significant structural flaws that may prove insurmountable to his campaign as time wears on. I wouldn’t expect to see any massive fluctuations until after the Olympics, but judging from the gains Barack Obama has made in nearly every important demographic, it is difficult to imagine that the race will remain this close for much longer. And that is cause to celebrate.
*The links provided in the first two paragraphs are the sources for all other numbers in this post.
