A Political Glimpse from Ireland

The Clinton Concession

Some people may think this is a bit premature but I believe that Senator Clinton will concede the fight for the Democratic Nomination in the next 72 hours. She won Puerto Rico by a decisive margin (68% - 32%) which was no surprise given her strong support amongst the Hispanic population, but that win has been unable to slow the freight train that is the Obama campaign. Senator Clinton played a great game and it has been fun, but this nomination process has gone on far too long, giving the Republican Party and John McCain and easy ride when the Democratic Nominee and the party should have been focusing on demonstrating the ineffectiveness of the GOP over the last 8 years.

I do not blame Senator Clinton for this lengthy electoral process but rather it was the circumstances that dictated the Democrats finally making a decision in June. Most people have already mentioned this but who would have thought a black man and a woman would be running for President in 2008. These unique circumstances have had many benefits but that is a topic for another day and another post. The final nail on the coffin of Senator Clinton caught me at the end of this Reuters article:

Her victory party in San Juan, a city of more than 400,000, attracted only a few hundred people. The same afternoon, Obama drew more than 2,000 supporters to the South Dakota town of Mitchell, population roughly 15,000. (Editing by David Wiessler)

I also think it is quite fitting that Senator McCain and Senator Obama are the two competitors in this game for democracy. Both candidates have their fair share of issues however I can say without reservation that Senator McCain has gotten the easy ride in the electoral process thus far, enabling the Obama team to effectively plan for whatever the GOP and other organizations can throw at them. Senator McCain on the other hand is not adequately prepared and he can thank the MSM for their nonchalant handling of his skeletons in the closet. Additionally the GOP and Senator McCain have made the same mistake as the Clinton campaign in focusing on experience over change. The majority of Americans are looking for change in a time when the American economy is stretched to its limits and world opinion of the USA is dwindling. The Democrats are going to win unless the Republican Party comes up with a different strategy, have a look at a New Yorker blog post by Hendrik Hertzberg containing an email from the Republican Senatorial Committee:

“DEMOCRATS WIN LANDSLIDE VICTORY”

That’s the subject line on today’s e-mail from the Republican Senatorial Committee. The text is worth a look:

Dear Republican Supporter,
I have a real fear of waking up to this headline after the elections this fall. Make no mistake about it: If our grassroots teams fail to come together and work as hard as they did in 2000, 2002 and 2004, that headline could very likely be the result!

I know this posts sounds like I am awfully sorry for the Republican Party, don’t get me wrong, I am not but I believe many Democrats are worried, as I am, that we will have to fight hard in the general election to ensure that Senator Obama is the next President. I believe there will be fight but as long as the liberal media and the bloggers online can maintain a message of change while fighting the eventual smear campaign that will ensue, the USA will have a new direction as well as a new President.

Any friendly bets for when Senator Clinton is going to concede?

Out Of Proportion

I wanted to do a little dance when I woke up this morning to discover that the last of Senator Clinton’s hopes is dead. Here is a summary of the delegate split decision:

Florida

Obama - 33.5
Clinton - 53.5

Michigan

Obama - 29.5
Clinton - 34.5

This effectively gave Senator Clinton a net increase of 24 delegates which is just a drop in the ocean when there are only three primaries left. After I declared Senator Obama the democratic nominee over a week ago, I must admit I was hesitant in doing so given the unpredictable nature of politics but I am quite thankful to be right. There are still many problems with the decision; the first possibility being that the Clinton camp might appeal the decision at the Democratic convention which is something that the party leaders are trying to avoid. The second possibility revolves around the “significant” number of Clinton supporters that might defect to the Republicans or simply not vote.

I believe the second possibility has been played up in the media for the purpose of ratings and sales; I do not have any facts to prove this but can make a generalization based on the current political climate. Every democrat is aware of the current state of the United States from the economy to the “progress” in Iraq. This awareness would make it illogical to vote for Senator McCain given his views towards Iraq and on the Bush Tax Cuts. I believe and hope that the Democratic Party will unite but the first step has to start with Senator Clinton this week.

“We’ve got to tell those people, ‘You’ve been in a fight, the fight is over. Which side are you on?’ “said Lawrence Guyot, 68, a former civil rights activist who headed the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party in 1964. “Do you support McCain, or do you support Obama?”

Guyot said it is up to Clinton to start that dialogue and bring her supporters to heel.

The Easy Way Out

It’s almost 11am and the RBC (Rules and Bylaws Committee) would be taking a break trying to decide how to sort out the conundrum that is the Michigan and Florida delegates. Senator Clinton wants the delegates seated completely and allocated in accordance with the rules because she took majorities in both states. The problem as outlined by Martha Clark:

“How do you recognize the people who didn’t vote and how do you recognize the people that did vote and how do we at the same time maintain the integrity of the process?” said Martha Fuller Clark, a DNC Rules Committee member from New Hampshire and Obama supporter. “And there are no easy answers.”

The Clinton camp has been continuously repeating that every vote should count but many people in both States did not vote but are invested in this election, how do we count their votes? In yesterday’s post I found a comment by someone who had relatives in Florida who did not go out and vote because they knew it would not count. Senator Clinton’s logic does not simply hold up, therefore I believe that Senator Clinton will not receive her wish but neither will Senator Obama. Instead we will all be waiting for the magical solution to solve this problem, and it will certainly have to be magical in order to appease people in both sides.

The Clinton camp is also talking about the demoralization of the Democratic Party if Florida and Michigan are snubbed in some way. I think in an ordinary election year this would be true but democrats across the country realize that conservative policies do not work and have not worked for this country over the last 8 years therefore mass desertions seem highly improbable. Of course, a certain small percentage of the population will be unhappy but the majority of voters want to take a stab at liberal policies to see if the Democrats can bring change. Finally with a Democratic controlled House and a President to support them, I can only imagine sweeping changes that will be good for America.

Lastly, on a personal note; Senator Clinton would be a strong presidential candidate and would mostly likely win the upcoming general election in the traditional electoral methodology. My argument here is that the American people and Democrats want the right person to be in the White House in 2009 rather than the candidate that could win the easiest. The easy way may help many liberals in the short term but many Americans are looking for a long-term change of direction with the economy and Iraq, can Senator Clinton deliver that?

Senator Clinton is a liberal, I cannot argue that point but she has many centrists view that almost lean towards the right as demonstrated by her Iran comments:

On April 29, answering a question on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” Sen. Hillary Clinton warned that if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, “we would be able to totally obliterate them.”

I want the candidate who is willing to negotiate and understands that military force is the last resort and not the first. I want the next President to be smart, well-educated and understanding of the world and the inter-play of forces that create human society. I want America’s future leader to reform American foreign policy to realize that America and its traditions must change in the wake of the new world order. In order for America to remain competitive, we need change.

Rules In A Week

It is exactly one week to ago until the Democratic Party’s Rules and Bylaws meeting where Senator Clinton’s last glimmer of hope exists. I personally don’t think it will make a difference what the commitee decides but Dan Balz at the Washington Post summarizes the situation quite neatly:

The Clinton campaign has staked out a tough position, what’s described as the “100 percent, 100 percent” solution. Clinton wants the full delegations from both states seated, with full voting rights, and the pledged delegates allocated on the basis of last winter’s primary results.

That means in Michigan awarding no delegates to Obama because he took his name off the ballot. The non-Clinton delegates would officially be considered uncommitted. Clinton’s campaign has calculated that, if that solution prevails, she will net 111 delegates, although most of the uncommitted delegates likely would end up supporting Obama.

In tribute to the strong posistion taken by the Clinton campaign, here is an extraction from her own website (with some editing of course):